Student Generation Factor

I learned a fun new term this week: Student Generation Factor. This is the number that the LCPS planning department uses to predict the number of students that will come out of a future residential development.

Single Family: .83 students per home
Townhome: .47 students per home
Multi Family: .28 students per home

Let's say a future development has 100 single family homes. LCPS would predict that 83 students would come from that development. Where does LCPS get that number? From the triennial census.

But wait, there's more! How old are those students? According to LCPS Planning, 51% will be Elementary age, 22% will be Middle Schoolers and the remaining 27% will be High School Students. Here's what else I know... under the current plans, LCPS will build High Schools to house 1,850 students each, Middle Schools at 1,350 students each and Elementary Schools with capacity for 875 students.

Let's have some fun with our new math today. If I understand this correctly, according to the Approved Residential Projects list, there were 41,712 units in approved or by-right developments which have yet to be permitted in Loudoun County as of January 1, 2008. So without further approvals that's another 41,712 homes on the way (more than that actually, because it only lists developments of 20 or more homes, but let's stick with what we know).

Housing Type	# Units	SGF	# Students
Single Family	11,161	0.83	9,264
Townhouses	12,468	0.47	5,860
Multifamily	41,712	0.28	11,679

That's a total of 26,803 kids who have yet to arrive (to provide a sense of scale, one year ago our student population was about 54,000). So how many new schools does that call for?

School Type	% of Students	# Students	School Capacity	# Schools
Elementary	51%	13,670	875	16
Middle	22%	5,897	1,350	4
High	27%	7,237	1,850	4

So that's a total of 24 new schools. Most of them will be south of the Greenway (Rt. 267) or West of Rt. 15. Again for scale, we currently have 75 schools, most of them with smaller capacity than the models listed here.

There are a number of caveats to this. There are factors will bring the number down. Not every approved or by-right unit will ultimately be built, for instance. There are other factors that will send the number higher, such as newly approved densities and developments under 20 units that didn't make onto the report. And then there is the question of how soon these various developments will be built.

There's also the caveat that I may be interpreting something incorrectly so feel free to check my math, correct my logic or provide me with different documents. I'd be happy to post updates.

Faster than a locomotive...

Yesterday's Washington Post carried a story about Loudoun County school construction entitled County Refines Rapid School Creation to a Science. It's very good reading, written by one of the best local reporters in the area. The credit given to the LCPS staff, particularly to Construction Director Kevin Lewis, is well deserved. We all should be aware of and grateful for the exceptional performance that he and his team has delivered consistently for the past several explosive years. We can't improve on the speed, or the cost, but we can improve.

I'm going to pull two lines from the story and put them side by side for you:
"Loudoun schools aren’t known for progressive architecture or energy efficiency, but they are known for how fast they get built.

"Architects are designing a two-story elementary and middle school prototype, moving away from the one-story model used now."

Being in the design phase for these new two-story schools is the perfect opportunity to change that first statement. We should be known for both our speed and our energy efficiency. The speed makes a big difference in the one year that the school opens. The efficiency will make a big difference for that year and the remaining 49 years in the lifespan of the school.

Green School Buildings

I've been meaning to write this post since back in May, when we first received a briefing on "Green Schools" from Moseley Architects, one of the firms that does Architectural work for LCPS. At that meeting, we were presented with a report entitled "Greening America's Schools." This isn't a written post so much as my notes from that meeting.

• By designing LEED-certified schools it is possible to achieve 33.4% savings in energy and 32.1% savings in water, though Loudoun is already efficient and will save less.
  
• There is a 1.65% cost premium to build a LEED-certified school.
  

• Things LCPS is already doing
• Exterior Lights are “dark-sky compliant”
• 3-level classroom lighting
• Light turn-off programs
• CO2 detectors
  

• Recommendations:
• Reflective roofing
• Water-efficient landscaping
• Energy System Commissioning
• Enhanced refrigerant management
• FSC Certified Wood (renewable forest sources)
• Alternative transportation (hybrids, bicycles)
• Waste management – recycling construction waste
• Construction IAQ Management
• Open-Grid Paving
• Exhausted Air Energy recovery

Past Posts on this topic:
Is Green Design Right for Your Schools?
Recycling in Schools
LCPS Recycling Program
Recyclying Update
Energy Efficiency Briefing

Report #4 from Conference

Session IV: Designing High Schools for the 21st Century
Presented by Dr. Kevin Castner, VP of Educational Services, SHW Group LLP. Dr. Castner is a former Virginia schools superintendent and plays golf on occasion with our own Dr. Hatrick and Mr. Waterhouse.

Presentation:
The presentation focused on integrating modern instructional ideals into construction planning. A powerpoint presentation was provided and referenced books, reports and articles about education in a modern digital world. The principles covered were Student-centered learning, digital delivery, interdisciplinary learning and improved methods of assessment. In essence, the case was made that our schools are still built on a 1950s architectural model, which was appropriate for a 1950s economy.

Reference Materials:
The World is Flat, Thomas Friedman
Don’t Bother Me Mom – I’m Learning, Mark Prensky
Report from the National Summit on School Design
Results that Matter: 21st Century Skills and High School Reform
A Whole Mind – Moving from the Information Age to the Conceptual Age, Daniel Pink

Recommendation:
Because Loudoun County will build three new high schools in the next six years and because of our wealth as a community, we are uniquely positioned to take advantage of this kind of thinking and new design. Unfortunately we won’t. The financial pressure brought on by constantly building new schools makes major innovation beyond our reach given our low-tax priorities. Innovation will be seen first in Montgomery, Arlington and Fairfax counties, which have the resources but also a stable student population.

LCPS should still take steps toward innovation with each new building design. Many will not be realized in brick & mortar during our political lifetimes, but progress in Virginia is made step by step, not in leaps & bounds.

School Sizes

Be sure to read today's Washington Post story about larger school sizes in Loudoun County. Many people, particularly in the rural west of the county, are understandably upset about the growth in school sizes. Small schools based in each small town would mean less time on the bus, greater community identity for the school and more individual attention for each child. It would also mean a significantly higher tax burden that the voters of Loudoun County have demonstrated they are not willing to bear.